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Avandia: The Death of a Blockbuster
Washington, DC: What a difference a few months can make. In spite of warnings, doubts and red flags concerning Avandia and the Avandia recall that date as far back as 1999, the diabetes drug continued to be doing well through the first half of the year.
In July, that all changed.
This may be the year that a once-blockbuster drug, with sales of $1 billion at its peak, may suffer the same fate as some of its patients suffering from Avandia side effects. Long suspected of having a relationship to heart failure amongst other Avandia side effects, Avandia was recently tagged with the dubious distinction of being the only diabetes drug in its class to be identified as having a link to heart attack, a more serious concern than heart failure. Already carrying a black box warning for the latter, Avandia maker GlaxoSmithKline was ordered by the US Food and Drug Administration this fall to add a second black box warning, with reference to a risk for heart attack.
 However, it may be too little too late for many patients. And it also may be too little, too late for Avandia. From a PR standpoint, the drug may already be dead, and the numbers tell the story.
According to research from TNS Healthcare's DiabetesDynamics USA, 70 per cent of changes in Avandia prescribing levels were the result of withdrawals as doctors switched their patients to other forms of diabetes medication.
What's even more telling is the acceleration rate of withdrawal activity, with as many Avandia withdrawals in the third quarter of this year, as the first two quarters, combined.
According to Philip O'Hagan, International Client Services Director for TNS Healthcare, "Avandia prescribing has always been dynamic, with our research showing that during the first half of 2007, 20 percent of physician consultations resulted in some kind of therapy change."
From January through June, O'Hagan goes on, "84 percent of those prescribing changes were positive—physicians starting new patients on Avandia, adding it to existing regimens or switching patients to Avandia from other therapies. From July forward, however, we see a dramatic turnaround, with the majority of Avandia changes now coming from doctors taking patients off the drug."
The research goes on to suggest that recent revelations about serious cardiovascular risk and Avandia heart attack serves as one of the primary reasons for doctors taking patients off of the drug. During the fist six months of the year there were no reported switches from Avandia due to heart complications or suspicion of same, and other Avandia side effects, although the first wisps of cardiovascular risk were in the wind.
However, with the gentle breeze of sustained suspicion having been whipped into a full-blown gale of concern these past few months, comes a notable change. A full 20 percent of switches away from Avandia in the third quarter have been identified as having to do with concern over Avandia heart attack and cardiovascular impact. It could be assumed that the fourth quarter of this year will reflect that trend, if not increase it.
This turnaround is considered quite dramatic, and if this pattern holds it could spell the end of a blockbuster.
However, it does not spell the end of Avandia woes for GlaxoSmithKline. For the Avandia manufacturer, the pain may be only beginning.
Pain that will be felt in the courts of law.
Avandia Legal Help If you or a family member have used Avandia and have suffered heart attack, liver damage, or osteoporosis after taking Avandia, please contact a lawyer involved in a possible [Avandia Lawsuit] who will review your case at no cost or obligation.
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